Lebanon on Friday marks 20 years since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, a pivotal event that reshaped the nation’s political landscape. The anniversary comes amid seismic shifts that have weakened Hezbollah and its backers, potentially paving the way for a political comeback by Hariri’s son, Saad.
On February 14, 2005, a suicide bombing targeted Rafic Hariri’s convoy in Beirut, killing him and 21 others. Hariri, a towering figure in Lebanese politics, had resigned as prime minister just months earlier. His death sent shockwaves through the country, triggering mass protests that eventually forced Syrian troops to end their 29-year occupation of Lebanon. In 2022, a UN-backed court sentenced two Hezbollah members to life imprisonment in absentia for the bombing, though the group has refused to hand them over.
Saad Hariri, who served as prime minister three times, has returned to Lebanon from the United Arab Emirates to commemorate his father’s legacy. This year, he steps into a dramatically changed Lebanon. Hezbollah, long the dominant political and military force, has been weakened by its war with Israel and the ousting of its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad. These developments have created an opening for Hariri to reassert himself in Lebanese politics.
On Friday, Hariri called on supporters to gather near his father’s burial site in downtown Beirut. A source close to him said he is expected to deliver a speech addressing developments “in Lebanon and the region” and outline a roadmap for the future. While Hariri may not immediately resume political activities, his supporters are urging him to return to public life. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that the reasons behind Hariri’s 2022 decision to step back—including concerns over Iranian influence—have now “vanished.”
Hariri’s political journey has been fraught with challenges. Once Lebanon’s main Sunni Muslim leader, he enjoyed strong backing from Saudi Arabia. However, his relationship with the kingdom soured due to his conciliatory approach toward Hezbollah. In 2017, he resigned as prime minister in a televised address from Riyadh, citing Iran’s “grip” on Lebanon through Hezbollah. The abrupt announcement sparked accusations that he was being held against his will, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to intervene and secure his return to Lebanon, where Hariri retracted his resignation.
In 2019, Hariri stepped down again amid nationwide protests demanding an overhaul of Lebanon’s political class. Three years later, he tearfully announced the suspension of his political activities, citing “Iranian influence” and other factors. Now, with Hezbollah’s influence waning and Saudi Arabia re-engaging with Lebanese politics, Hariri’s supporters see an opportunity for his return.
The political vacuum left by Hezbollah’s decline has been partially filled. In January, former army chief Joseph Aoun was elected president after more than two years of political deadlock. Aoun, seen as the preferred candidate of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, has worked with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a former International Criminal Court judge, to form a new government. “Lebanon has been given a new chance as Iranian influence is declining and the international community has returned,” the source close to Hariri said.
Saudi Arabia, which had distanced itself from Lebanon due to Hezbollah’s dominance, has recently rekindled its interest in the country. Analysts believe Riyadh is seeking a strong Sunni leader to counterbalance Hezbollah. “If Hariri can present himself as that figure, his return would serve both his interests and those of the kingdom,” said Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University.
Rafic Hariri, a billionaire and the architect of Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction, remains a symbol of hope for many Lebanese. His assassination, widely blamed on Syria and Hezbollah at the time, galvanized a movement that ended Syrian occupation. For Saad Hariri, this anniversary is not just a moment of remembrance but a test of his ability to rally support and reclaim his father’s legacy. As Lebanon stands at a crossroads, the Hariri name once again looms large over its uncertain future.